MCX Gold Reverses Direction, Global Prices Not Moving Much

MCX Gold flipped back in the afternoon after recording heavy gains. The Indian Rupee fell above 65 per US dollar and pushed up the metal on the local bourses. However, global prices continued to face resistance as the Fed looked set to trim its asset purchases by the year-end. COMEX Gold is hovering at $1370 per ounce- unchanged on the day after hitting its two-month high levels earlier in the week. MCX Gold quotes at Rs 31352, down Rs 92 per 10 grams or 0.30% on the day.

The keenly awaited minutes of the last US Fed meet revealed yesterday that ''a few'' members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ''suggested that it might soon be time to slow somewhat the pace'' of asset purchases, the minutes said. But the timing of the Fed's plan to taper its stimulus program remained unclear, as others in the group ''emphasized the importance of being patient''. They said more data gauging growth in the economy was needed before reducing the $US85 billion-a-month bond-buying program.

Fed officials also discussed the rise in interest rates following the June FOMC meeting. Some participants indicated that overall financial-market conditions had tightened significantly. They also expressed concern that the higher level of longer-term interest rates could be a significant factor holding back spending and economic growth.

The exports of gold jewellery from India dropped 70% in July due to non-availability of the raw material, while silver jewellery shipments more than doubled in the same period, the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) said. Shipments of gold jewellery fell to $441.4 million in July from the $1.5 billion in the year ago period, the total gems and jewellery exports fell 17 percent to $2.49 billion, the GJEPC noted. Gold imports into India are expected to re-start by next week after the central bank clarified a new rule that brought the flow of the precious metal into the world's top gold consumer to a standstill at the end of July.

Silver Tips For Today

Silver futures on COMEX are quoting up for a second straight session, starting the New Year on a song as good demand has emerged in precious metals complex. A reprieve on the US fiscal cliff boosted the sentiments for risky assets and bullion metals rallied alongside as a weak turn in US dollar kept the buying on. The commodity quotes at $30.59, up 3.6 cents or 1.20% on the day.

Yesterday, the US House of Representatives has passed legislation to avert big income tax increases on most Americans and prevent large cuts in spending for the Pentagon and other government programs. The measure, brought to the House floor less than 24 hours after its passage in the Senate, passed 257-167, with 85 Republicans joining 172 Democrats in voting to allow income taxes to rise for the first time in two decades, in this case for Americans earning more than $400,000 for individuals, or $450,000 for couples.

COMEX Silver had slumped to a four month low under $30 per ounce in the last month but steady buying has been a perennial feature of the trade thereafter. The markets are also looking out for the Semiconductor Industry Association's latest global sales report. The report presents three-month moving average of global semiconductor sales activity and has turned out to be a useful too to measure silver industrial demand.

MCX Silver futures for March 2012 are trading at Rs 58168, up Rs 250 per kg or 0.43% on the day. The open interest in the counter is up by 2% on the day. Prices had dropped well under Rs 58000 in last session but seem to be charting a decent recovery now.

Intraday MCX Tips

Cardamom gained on short covering lead by strong local demand against the weak arrivals in the local market over the same period last year. The MCX cardamom December contract ended the day at Rs 943.50, up Rs 36.40 or 4% from the last close.
As per the latest updates from the Spices Board of India, the average pricesof cardamom in the auction held at STCL, Kumily on Monday (as on 26th November2012) stood at Rs 839.42 and maximum price was at Rs 1058 per kg. The arrivalsand offtakes stood at 22470 kg. The average price in the previous auction was Rs832.52 per kg, meanwhile arrivals and offtakes stood at 96560 kg.
India's crop is projected lower over last year and short fall in the local arrivals is expected in mid December -January period. Cardamom is expected to bounce back in medium term, when arrivals slumps in auctions and on pick up in export orders. Guatemala's crop with carry over stocks estimated around 34 thousand tonnes and some infestation will affect mainly the quality of the Guatemalan cardamom this season. Guatemala produced a record of 10,000 tons of cardamom in the month of October 2012. Never before on the history of cardamom, Guatemala had produced so much cardamom in one month. This is 40 % of the total production of Guatemala three years back. Guatemala cardamom harvesting runs through October till June next year.

Cardamom gained Rs 165 per 1 kg in November lead by strong fundamentals. Cardamom dipped around Rs 70 per 1 kg in the last two sessions from the high of Rs 977.20. Cardamom December contract ended the day at Rs 943.50, up Rs 36.40 or 4% from the last close. The open interest dipped 100 lots to 3,827 lots, indicating profit taking.

MCX Crude Oil Tips

Crude oil futures continued to trade lower in Asia electronic session today as Tropical Cyclone Sandy shut East Coast refineries, roads and airports, reducing crude and fuel demand in the world's largest oil consumer.

Fuel supply into the region almost ground to a halt as Sandy, one of the biggest storms ever to hit the United States, forced the closure of two-thirds of the region's refineries, its biggest pipeline, and most major ports.

WTI crude oil futures for December edged down 25 cents to $85.29 in Asia electronic session today.

The national average retail price of regular gasoline fell 11.9 cents a gallon to a three-month low of $3.568 a gallon in the week ended Monday, the Energy Information Administration said. The 3.2% drop in the week put the price at the lowest since July 30.

Global markets were subdued on the closure of New York stock exchanges, with Asian shares making modest gains. Sandy battered the U.S. East Coast, prompting the closure of air, ship, rail and even highway services, and knocked out power to more than 2.8 million homes and businesses in the region.

Sandy will close U.S. stock markets for a second day on Tuesday, as Wall Street turned its attention to whether markets would be able to resume functioning for the month's final trading day on Wednesday.

The American Petroleum Institute said on Monday it has not delayed the release of its weekly petroleum stocks report yet, but it will continue to assess conditions.

MCX November crude futures may open today’s session near Rs 4650 levels with support around Rs 4600 levels.

Chana updates

Advisory Data:-

Saturday buying continued in chana futures on the back of strong millers offtake along with sharp gains in local mandies. The NCDEX futures swelled by almost Rs 132 per quintal today
Strapping millers offtake ahead of festival demand spurred strong gains in both spot and futures market. Most of the millers of North India have witnessed active buying interest in local mandies. Moreover, poor moisture content in some parts of the chana growing states also added speculative demand in local mandies.
The spot prices of chana such as Akola and Latur variety increased by almost Rs 75-100 per quintal today from the previous day to trade at around Rs 4500-4650 per quintal with the total arrivals of 35 thousand bags.
The NCDEX November Chana contract increased by almost Rs 132 per quintal to settle at Rs 4530 per quintal in today's trading. The contract pared 800 positions in open interest indicating short covering by speculators and traders.